Welkom bij Kennisagenda Automatisch Rijden, een initiatief van het Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat, Rijkswaterstaat en de RDW, om een online overzicht te geven van beschikbare en benodigde kennis op het gebied van automatisch rijden.
Het overzicht is verdeeld in een aantal kennisdomeinen om de diverse facetten in beeld te brengen. In de bibliotheek vindt u een uitgebreide collectie van rapporten, papers en presentaties, inclusief samenvattingen en achtergrondinformatie. De bibliotheek wordt wereldwijd gebruikt. Het laatste rapport over Ethiek werd in korte tijd 674 keer opgevraagd! Dagelijks worden ca 30 stukken gedownload.
Wat zijn de business modellen van producenten, willen ze wel verder ontwikkelen (nieuwe markt/spelers) ?
There are multiple models/players:
“The Branded Integrated Life-Style Model
It’s a sleekly designed experience, riding in this self-driving car. As elegantly designed as the sleekest smart phone.You use an app on your phone to summon your car when you need it or to program a daily pick-up. It’s as simple as setting the alarm on your phone.Your windshield doubles as a screen, synching seamlessly with your other connected devices. As you ride along, you swipe through applications and web sites, checking your progress and the local weather on a digital dashboard, uploading photos to your favorite web site or watching a video. When you arrive at your destination, the screens you’ve opened are synched and waiting for you on whatever device you pick up next.
In this model, perhaps a company with no traditional presence in the auto industry that is already an integral part of the consumer’s life outside the vehicle could become a key participant in the ecosystem. Since self-driving vehicles will no longer need the same level of rigorous testing and validation, and manufacturing could potentially be outsourced, their emphasis would be on consumer research, product development, and sale of integrated lifestyle experiences.
The Branded Lifestyle Value Proposition: Design, Technology, Software, Consumer experience
The Open System Model
It’s all about the data and how to use these data to customize the consumer value proposition.The market for big data
is growing exponentially. Market intelligence provider IDC predicts that by 2015 the “Big Data” market will be $16.9 billion, up from $3.2 billion in 2010.35 A major player in the data market might not want to manufacture vehicles, but could
well design a vehicle operating system. With more than a billion cars serving up trillions of data points about consumer behavior, traffic patterns, and topography, an operating system (OS) developer could afford to give away the OS but accrue significant value from the data they could aggregate. Who would manufacture the vehicle? The OS provider could partner with any of the world’s vehicle manufacturers—and not just the traditional automotive manufacturers. Partnerships could be established with one or more new players who might compete in the branded technology arena.
The Open System Value Proposition: Utility, Technology, Customization
Mobility On Demand Model
Zipcar was the pioneer in the shared-vehicle field, but other players are breaking into the market. Whereas current mobility on demand providers must make vehicles easily accessible for customers in urban areas, their vehicle maintenance and parking fees are high. With self-driving vehicles, proximity to end-users would no longer be necessary. Vehicles could be dispatched by taxi and car service companies.
Giant retailers with a core competence in managing complex distribution channels or fleet providers with the capability
to manage the complexity of renting and allocation of fleets could enter the fray and accrue significant value in the new ecosystem. New entrants in the market might compete at either end of the spectrum—with generic, low-cost utilitarian transportation on demand at one end (the low-cost airline model) and super-luxury mobile executive suites and sleeping pods at the other (the first class or private jet experience). Success will be determined by efficiency, reliability, flexibility, vehicle maintenance, customer service, ease of human-vehicle interface, and integration with existing consumer devices—and all the other psychographic factors that determine consumer behaviors and brand preferences.
The Mobility on Demand Value Proposition: Flexibility, Reliability, Convenience, Cost
The OEM Model
Traditional automotive manufacturers have decades of experience in designing and manufacturing vehicles, and shaping an emotional connection with consumers. But will they move fast enough to maintain their brand dominance? Smart automotive manufacturers should be planning now, thinking about how to restructure their organizations and what potential strategic investments they should be making. History has not been kind to those who get stuck protecting the status quo in the face of disruptive change. In fact, collaboration is already taking place across the ecosystem as companies strive to stay relevant.The joint project between Intel and DENSO36 to develop in-vehicle communication and information systems exemplifies the new cross-industry synergistic relationships.
Vertical integration is an option for companies looking to bring a critical skill or technology in house. Some vehicle manufacturers have established venture capital subsidiaries to invest in promising new technologies as a means of bridging any skill or technology gaps. Doing so may provide a competitive advantage in this rapidly evolving ecosystem.
The OEM Value Proposition: Design, Technology, HMI, Supply Chain Management “
Gevonden in (p.32-33): Self-Driving Cars, The Next Revolution
Regarding making PT more flexible:
“Such a transformation of the system could also breathe new life into ideas of financing basic public-transportation services—on the one hand in the form of pay-as-you-drive, but also on a flat-rate basis financed via taxes or levied on all citizens, as is often debated for cities. Also, a high service density in suburban and even rural areas would justify a flat-rate levy and could in the process help to reduce private car use.”
Regarding offering new service options for PT:
Concerning intermodality, possibilities include more public transport services, even in the suburban and rural areas mentioned above (for urban areas, see Chap. 11). The benefits resulting from the use of autonomous vehicles are equally true in spatial and temporal terms, that is both for districts on the outskirts and off-peak hours. An economic lower limit resulting from frequency of use also applies here, however, even in view of the saved labor costs. This also means that a spatially highly dispersed use can only be covered to a limited extent by providing larger fleets. In any case, operating these vehicles would have to pay for itself in terms of initial outlay and operating costs.”
Gevonden in (p. 186 & 187): New Mobility Concepts and Autonomous Driving: The Potential for Change
Wat kan NL doen om in de context van NL maximaal te profiteren van de energie die nu wordt ingezet op de wens van coöperatief en autonoom rijden?
“The automotive industry is a global industry in which value is generated predominantly by suppliers to automakers. The Dutch automotive industry is no exception to this rule. Within specific areas in the automotive industry, the Netherlands even plays a significant role with leading innovative companies that are involved in automotive activities worldwide. In these areas, the Dutch automotive sector is highly innovative and possesses a considerable knowledge base. To further strengthen its role, the Dutch automotive sector has developed a vision supported by a strong ambition of the Dutch automotive industry to increase its annual revenues from Eur 12 bn to Eur 20 bn.
The Dutch automotive sector has two responses to the opportunities and challenges of today’s automotive industry: innovation and cooperation. Innovation is vital in the continuous struggle for cost reductions alongside increasing levels of quality, individuality, and personalisation, and legal requirements (e.g., noise, safety and emission). Effective cooperation is becoming more and more crucial as competitive advantage will gravitate towards those that discern their strengths and move quickly to build or join appropriate new collaborative networks.”
Gevonden in (p.7): Vision for the Dutch automotive sector
- Use of existing and public infrastructure:
- The concept of truck platooning combines automation with the usage of existing public infrastructure. This increases the compatibility of the concept. New infrastructure is often expensive and it may not be clear who is responsible for the infrastructure.
- Realization of fuel savings:
- Truck platooning has the potential to significantly save fuel. This also results in less emissions. Though, the order of fuel savings in practice is still uncertain. It was found that truck platooning is probably not feasible when only fuel savings are taken into account.
- Larger truck driver productivity:
- Drivers in following trucks may be in a standby mode at highways or even disappear for high levels of automation. It can be concluded that coordinated platoon formation is needed to benefit from larger trip distances that may be possible due to platooning. Labor cost savings may largely contribute to the adoption of platooning as many flows become feasible for platooning when labor costs drop.
Gevonden in (p. 49): https://www.dropbox.com/s/wnl33x2zqwwe5jy/MScThesisBakermans2016.pdf?dl=0
Hoeveel levert het nu echt op ? Over welke scenario's hebben we het op korte termijn nu echt ? Wie zijn daarbij de stakeholders (publiek/privaat) en wie beslissen waarover ?
“We estimate that autonomous vehicles can save the US economy $1.3 trillion per year. We believe the large potential savings can help accelerate the adoption of autonomous vehicles.
We see five drivers of the cost savings: Fuel cost savings ($158 bn), accident costs ($488 bn), productivity gain ($507 bn), fuel loss from congestion ($11 bn), productivity savings from congestion ($138 bn).
This is our base case estimate. Our bull case estimate of savings is $2.2 tn/year and a bear case is $0.7 tn/year
This is a rough estimate. It does not account for the cost of implementing autonomous vehicles (one-time), offsetting losses, and investment implications. It also assumes 100% penetration of autonomous vehicles to achieve the full run-rate of potential savings.”